Musk threatens Apple with legal action over App Store bias towards OpenAI
Investing.com - Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James reports that small cap value is the only investment style currently trading below its long-term price-to-earnings average, according to a recent analysis of the second quarter earnings season. This stands in stark contrast to the broader market, with InvestingPro data showing the S&P 500 trading near its 52-week high of $639.85, having delivered a robust 21% return over the past year.
The firm describes the recent earnings period as "historically very strong and broad" and "as strong and broadly strong in relation to EPS revisions as any since 2021." Eight of 11 market sectors experienced positive earnings revisions, with only health care, energy, and materials showing negative trends. This broad-based strength has contributed to the market’s overall health, reflected in the GOOD Financial Health Score of 2.75 according to InvestingPro metrics.
Despite the positive earnings backdrop, Raymond James notes equity performance has been "incredibly narrow and volatile with record low % of equities outperforming benchmark indexes." The firm observed 13% more stocks falling by 10% or more than rising by that amount during earnings season, representing the largest negative skew since early 2022.
The analysis points to a formula explaining corporate earnings strength: "OBBB + weaker USD + sustained consumer spending + increased capex > tariff headwind." Capital expenditures both within and outside the artificial intelligence sector were revised higher during the quarter.
From a valuation perspective, Raymond James states that most index valuations sit "in the middle to upper end of normal long-term P/E ranges," with market-cap weighted large cap indexes at the high end of historical ranges, even excluding the "Magnificent 7" stocks. The firm concludes it’s "a stock pickers market" partly because "most indexes are above normal valuations." This assessment aligns with InvestingPro data showing the S&P 500’s P/E ratio at 14.65, while noting that current valuation implies a poor free cash flow yield. Investors seeking deeper valuation insights can access over 30 additional financial metrics and valuation indicators through InvestingPro’s comprehensive analysis tools.
In other recent news, Citi analysts have projected an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4% in the upcoming June jobs report, with payroll job growth expected to slow to 85,000, indicating a cooling labor market. Meanwhile, Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins has advocated for a patient approach to adjusting interest rates amid economic uncertainty, suggesting that solid economic conditions allow for careful assessment of incoming data. Additionally, Citi has expressed concerns about Nasdaq’s stretched positioning, which could lead to increased profit-taking risks for the index.
Goldman Sachs has identified policy news, ISM services data, and Federal Reserve speeches as critical market catalysts, noting increased market volatility in response to challenging economic data. Furthermore, the JPM Delta One Desk has reported stabilization in equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) with near-average inflows, following a period of outflows or below-average inflows. In the futures market, there has been significant buying activity in Nasdaq, EAFE, Euro Stoxx 50, and other equity futures, while sales have been observed in VIX and several other futures, including Gold. Asset Managers have increased their long positions in S&P 500 futures, and leveraged funds have reduced their short positions in Nasdaq and U.S. Treasury futures.
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