Wang & Lee Group board approves 250-to-1 reverse share split
On Monday, Stifel analysts maintained a Buy rating on TriNet Group (NYSE:TNET) with a steady price target of $97.00. The support for the rating comes despite the stock’s approximately 20% drop following the fourth quarter of 2024 earnings report. This decline was attributed to a revision in the 2025 insurance margin, leading to a 10-15% reduction in the expected 2025 EBITDA. The stock has fallen 25.66% over the past six months and currently trades at $73.55, with InvestingPro analysis suggesting the stock is currently undervalued based on its Fair Value model.
The analysts observed that TriNet’s Worksite Employee (WSE) per unit growth has been lagging behind the industry for several years. However, following recent meetings with TriNet’s new CEO, CFO, and the heads of sales and insurance, Stifel’s analysts believe the issues are addressable. They noted that the insurance margin decline was due to a poorly-timed growth acceleration attempt by the previous management, which they consider fixable. According to InvestingPro data, management has been actively buying back shares, demonstrating confidence in the company’s future prospects. The platform reveals 8 additional key insights about TNET’s performance and outlook.
The new CEO’s strategy to reaccelerate growth was deemed logical by the analysts, even as the market adopts a "wait-and-see" approach. Despite the market’s current indifference, Stifel finds the risk/reward balance for TriNet’s stock compelling. They predict that even with minimal improvements from the new CEO’s initiatives, a low-end 4-6% mid-term revenue growth target is within reach. The company maintains a moderate debt level with a debt-to-capital ratio of 0.22 and has demonstrated profitability over the last twelve months with an EBITDA of $282 million.
Confidence is high among the Stifel analysts that insurance margins will improve, potentially outpacing the guidance, and that expenses will increase at a slower rate than revenue. They emphasized that every 100 basis point change in net insurance margin could lead to a more than 10% change in EBITDA. Additionally, a return to target insurance margins could alone result in a 20% price appreciation.
Currently, TriNet’s stock is trading at what Stifel considers a trough multiple of 9-10 times EBITDA based on trough and de-risked earnings. They suggest that if the expected Worksite Employee growth materializes, the stock could be re-rated higher as earnings increase.
In other recent news, TriNet Group reported its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, which exceeded analysts’ expectations. The company achieved an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.44, surpassing the forecasted $0.25, and reported revenue of $1.3 billion, which was $50 million more than anticipated. Despite these strong financial results, TD Cowen downgraded TriNet’s stock from a ’Buy’ to a ’Hold’ rating and lowered the price target from $104.00 to $74.00. The downgrade was attributed to a lack of immediate catalysts expected to drive the stock’s performance in the near term. TriNet’s strategic shift includes exiting its HRIS software-only business to concentrate on HR Plus ASO products, with 2025 anticipated to be a transitional year. The company generated $279 million in net cash from operations and returned $219 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. TriNet’s CEO, Mike Simons, emphasized the company’s focus on core offerings and financial objectives, including revenue growth and margin expansion. Looking forward, the company provided a revenue guidance of $4.9 billion to $5.1 billion for 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA margin projected between 7-9%.
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