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On Monday, Stifel analysts increased their price target on Rheinmetall (ETR:RHMG) AG (RHM:GR) (OTC: RNMBY) shares to EUR1,037 from the previous EUR650, while retaining a Buy rating on the stock. The adjustment follows the firm's alignment with Rheinmetall's fiscal year 2027 (FY27) medium-term guidance, which was presented during the company's Capital Markets Day (CMD) in November 2024.
The analysts at Stifel based their optimistic outlook on the current defense spending targets set by NATO, which stand at 2% of GDP, as well as committed budgets. They anticipate that NATO will likely introduce new defense spending targets ranging from 2.5-3% of GDP in June this year. This adjustment is expected due to the ongoing pressure on Europe to bolster its security measures and a recent proposal from the EU Commission.
The potential increase in defense spending could lead to an additional US$85-176 billion per annum in Europe, with Rheinmetall poised to capture a significant portion of this market, particularly in land systems. Stifel's analysis suggests that Rheinmetall could receive incremental orders from Germany alone amounting to between €10-20 billion annually. This figure stands in stark contrast to the company's own revenue guidance of €20 billion for FY27.
Given these projections, Stifel analysts believe that Rheinmetall may have significant growth potential that exceeds its FY27 targets. They suggest that the company might revise its medium-term targets upward as soon as November 2025 at the next CMD. Rheinmetall's stock is currently trading at 13 times and 9.5 times its estimated enterprise value to adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EV/adj. EBIT) for 2026 and 2027, respectively. These estimates already take into account the FY27 guidance and the 2% GDP defense spending target. According to Stifel, the market has not fully priced in the possibility of structurally higher defense spending in the medium term.
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