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On Wednesday, UBS raised its price target on Aviva (LON:AV) Plc (AV/:LN) (OTC: AIVAF) shares to GBP6.75, up from GBP5.90, while sustaining a Buy rating on the stock. The adjustment comes amid expectations of a significant earnings boost from the potential acquisition of Direct Line (LON:DLGD) (DLG). UBS analysts predict the deal could be more than 12% accretive to Aviva's earnings per share (EPS), a figure not yet reflected in the current stock price.
The firm's analysts noted that the acquisition is poised to expedite Aviva's shift towards business lines that are not only capital light, accounting for over 75% of the pro forma mix, but also yield a higher return on capital, exceeding 20%. The focus of UBS's analysis is on the potential value accretion resulting from the acquisition. They foresee an upside to the company's anticipated EPS accretion of around 10%, with their estimates suggesting a figure greater than 12%.
The optimism from UBS is fueled by the expectation of achieving cost synergies in excess of GBP200 million, which surpasses the company's own guidance of GBP125 million. Despite anticipating a negative impact of approximately 9 percentage points on solvency due to the deal, after accounting for predicted capital synergies, the overall financial outcome is expected to be favorable.
UBS anticipates that the transaction will yield an attractive internal rate of return (IRR) and return on investment (ROI) of around 16%. This assessment underscores the potential financial benefits Aviva could reap from the successful completion of the Direct Line acquisition. The new price target reflects the confidence in Aviva's strategic direction and the anticipated positive impact on its financial performance.
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