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On Wednesday, UBS analyst Thomas Wadewitz revised the price target for American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) shares, lowering it to $13.00 from the previous $19.00. Despite the adjustment, the analyst maintained a Neutral rating on the stock. According to InvestingPro data, the stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 8.5x, with analyst targets ranging from $13 to $30.
Wadewitz’s decision follows American Airlines’ recent pre-report, which indicated an anticipated loss for the first quarter ranging between -$0.60 to -$0.80 per share. This forecast contrasts sharply with the airline’s prior guidance, which projected a loss of only -$0.20 to -$0.40 per share. Additionally, the company now expects revenue to remain flat, a downgrade from its previous estimate of 3% to 5% revenue growth. The stock has declined over 34% year-to-date, with InvestingPro analysis showing the stock may be undervalued at current levels.
The airline has encountered several challenges in the first quarter, including the repercussions of the accident in Washington DC involving Flight 5342, operational disruptions due to adverse weather conditions at its Southern hubs, and a decline in domestic leisure travel, especially noticeable in March.
Despite these hurdles, UBS’s analysis suggests that demand for international flights and premium services remains strong. American Airlines is reportedly concentrating efforts on recapturing its market share in the business travel sector, with plans to achieve this goal over multiple quarters.
In other recent news, American Airlines has adjusted its first-quarter 2025 revenue expectations, projecting a 4% decrease, which led BofA Securities to lower its price target for the airline from $20.00 to $16.00 while maintaining a Neutral rating. The revision follows an update to the earnings per share estimate for the first quarter of 2025, now expected to be $(0.70), aligning with the company’s revised projections. Meanwhile, Citi has maintained a Buy rating on American Airlines with a $21.50 price target, despite acknowledging demand softness attributed to various factors including tariff uncertainties and recent aviation incidents. Citi’s analyst Stephen Trent (NSE:TREN) emphasized confidence in the airline’s medium-term outlook, citing strong anticipated revenue from premium travel and co-branded card agreements.
In a broader context, the airline industry faces challenges as Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL)’ reduction in profit guidance has impacted investor sentiment, influencing American Airlines’ revised financial forecasts. American Airlines now anticipates a loss of up to 80 cents per share for the first quarter, doubling its previous maximum estimate. The company also adjusted its revenue expectations to flat growth instead of the initially projected increase of up to 5%. These changes reflect the impact of recent aviation incidents, including a crash involving an American Airlines plane.
The adjustments in financial forecasts by major airlines have contributed to a decline in airline stocks, as investors assess the potential slowdown in the travel industry heading into 2025. As the market responds to these developments, the focus remains on upcoming earnings reports and the strategies airlines will employ to navigate the current economic climate.
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