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On Tuesday, UBS analyst Dennis Geiger updated the firm’s outlook on Wendy’s stock (NASDAQ:WEN), increasing the price target from $15.00 to $16.00 while maintaining a Neutral rating. Currently trading at $15.16, Wendy’s stock is trading near its InvestingPro Fair Value, with analysts’ targets ranging from $14 to $29. The adjustment follows Wendy’s Investor Day held on Monday in Columbus (WA:CLC), Ohio, where the fast-food chain’s CEO Kirk Tanner, CFO Ken Cook, and other key members of the new leadership team presented their strategy for the company’s future growth.
The management team at Wendy’s outlined a long-term growth algorithm, aiming for significant expansion and increased profitability in the coming years. Building on its current revenue growth of 2.98% and EBITDA of $520 million, the company’s targets include 3-4% net unit growth, 5-6% system sales growth, and 7-8% adjusted EBITDA growth. By 2028, Wendy’s aims to reach 8,100 to 8,300 total units, generate $17.5 to $18.0 billion in global system sales, and achieve $650 to $700 million in adjusted EBITDA. Additionally, Wendy’s projects cumulative free cash flow (FCF) from 2025 to 2028 to be between $1.1 and $1.2 billion. For detailed financial analysis and growth projections, access the comprehensive Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.
The leadership team at Wendy’s believes that their compelling food offerings, effective marketing strategies, operational enhancements, and an accelerated pace of store development will drive system sales and profit growth. The focus for the company now shifts to the execution of these strategic plans to strengthen its sales trajectory and hasten net unit growth.
Despite the positive growth outlook, UBS notes that Wendy’s still faces challenges, including macroeconomic headwinds and increased competitive activity in the quick-service restaurant (QSR) sector. At approximately 13.5 times the estimated earnings per share for 2026, UBS is looking for signs of sustained sales momentum, accelerating development trends, and robust EBITDA and FCF growth as potential drivers for the stock’s upside.
In other recent news, Wendy’s reported its fourth-quarter 2024 financial results, surpassing earnings expectations with an adjusted EPS of $0.25, beating the forecast of $0.24. The company’s revenue also exceeded estimates, reaching $574.3 million. Wendy’s announced its ambitious growth strategy to add 1,000 new restaurants worldwide by 2028, with a projected 3-4% annual increase in net units. The company aims for global systemwide sales of $17.5 to $18.0 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $650 to $700 million by 2028. JPMorgan, UBS, and Citi analysts have recently revised their price targets for Wendy’s shares, all maintaining a Neutral rating, with UBS and Citi adjusting their targets to $15 and $15.50, respectively. These adjustments follow Wendy’s fourth-quarter results and strategic plans for growth. Despite challenges in the quick-service restaurant industry, Wendy’s continues to focus on menu innovation and operational improvements to drive sales growth. The company is expected to share updated strategic plans during its investor day scheduled for March 6, 2025.
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