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On Monday, Citi analysts updated their stance on United Spirits Ltd. (NSE:UNSP:IN), increasing the price target to INR1,650 from INR1,625, while maintaining a Neutral rating on the stock. The adjustment follows United Spirits' strong quarterly results, which showcased a 15% year-over-year growth in net revenue. This performance was primarily driven by a 10% increase in volume, with significant contributions stemming from heightened consumption during the festive and wedding seasons, as well as a strategic business expansion in Andhra Pradesh.
Andhra Pradesh played a notable role in the company's quarterly growth, contributing 6.1% to the year-over-year increase. This includes channel inventory filling; however, even excluding the impact from Andhra Pradesh, United Spirits' net revenue still grew by 9% year-over-year. Looking forward, Citi analysts anticipate continued robust growth in the near term.
The company management has reiterated its guidance for double-digit revenue growth in premium and above (P&A) products for the fiscal year 2025, with two key growth levers identified: ongoing benefits from the Andhra Pradesh market over the next three quarters and the company's initiatives in innovation and renovation across its portfolio.
Despite the positive outlook on United Spirits' medium-term growth prospects, Citi analysts caution that the current stock price may already reflect these potential upsides. The stock is trading at 62 times the 1-year forward consensus price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Additionally, the analysts are keeping an eye on the strategic direction that the company will take under the leadership of the new CEO, Praveen Someshwar, who is set to take the helm on April 1.
In their commentary, Citi analysts stated, "We remain positive on UNSP's medium-term growth prospects; however, at 62x 1-year forward consensus P/E, potential upsides appear priced in. We will also watch out for the strategic direction under the new CEO (Praveen Someshwar takes over from 1-Apr). Maintain Neutral."
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