Wells Fargo lowers Dow stock price target to $30 on revised outlook

Published 09/09/2025, 11:30
Wells Fargo lowers Dow stock price target to $30 on revised outlook

Investing.com - Wells Fargo reduced its price target on Dow Inc. (NYSE:DOW) stock to $30.00 from $32.00 on Tuesday, while maintaining its Overweight rating on the chemical company. The stock, currently trading at $23.98, offers a substantial 5.84% dividend yield, according to InvestingPro data.

The firm’s adjusted valuation is based on a 2026 estimated EV/EBITDA multiple of 9x, which Wells Fargo notes equals 6x mid-cycle EBITDA of $6 billion and less than 3x past peak EBITDA of $13.3 billion. The company currently trades at an EV/EBITDA of 7.57x, with InvestingPro analysis suggesting the stock is slightly undervalued based on its proprietary Fair Value model.

Despite the target reduction, Wells Fargo believes the risk/reward profile for Dow at current levels remains "skewed to the upside," suggesting potential for share appreciation. This comes even as the stock has declined over 33% in the past six months, with InvestingPro offering 10+ additional insights about Dow’s financial health and market position.

In its bull case scenario, Wells Fargo sees upside potential to $35 based on stronger polyethylene pricing, volume improvements, better feedstock costs, and a slightly more favorable macroeconomic environment.

The firm’s bear case projects downside risk to $20, which would materialize under conditions of weaker demand, higher costs, and a deteriorating macroeconomic situation.

In other recent news, Dow Inc. reported its second-quarter 2025 earnings, revealing a larger-than-expected loss and a decline in revenue. The company posted an earnings per share of -$0.42, which significantly missed the forecast of -$0.16. Revenue also fell short of expectations, totaling $10.1 billion compared to the anticipated $10.24 billion. Additionally, Dow Inc. and its subsidiary, The Dow Chemical Company, completed a $1.4 billion public offering of senior notes. This offering includes $750 million of 4.800% notes maturing in 2031 and $650 million of 5.650% notes maturing in 2036. In analyst updates, Jefferies maintained its Hold rating on Dow but lowered its price target to $23.00 from $28.00 due to supply chain concerns. The firm also reduced its earnings estimates for the company, cutting its 2025 EBITDA forecast by 2%, 2026 by 19%, and 2027 by 13%. Furthermore, Dow and Gruppo Fiori have developed a new process to recycle polyurethane foam from end-of-life vehicles without disassembly. This innovation aims to establish a closed-loop recycling system for automotive polyurethane foam.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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