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Wolfe Research initiated coverage on Sarepta Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SRPT), currently valued at $2.06 billion in market cap, with a peerperform rating on Tuesday, setting a fair value of $19 per share based on discounted cash flow analysis. According to InvestingPro data, the stock’s RSI suggests it is in oversold territory.
The stock traded down approximately 44% intraday to around $20 per share following recent safety concerns with its treatments. While the company maintains a healthy current ratio of 4.02, indicating strong short-term liquidity, Wolfe Research’s model removes non-ambulatory revenue in the near term with some downside impact on ambulatory revenue.
The firm projects Elevidys revenue recovery by Q4, reaching $952 million in 2025, $1.0 billion in 2026, and eventually peaking at $1.7 billion in 2029. This would build upon the company’s current annual revenue of $2.23 billion, though InvestingPro analysis shows the company is currently burning through cash rapidly. Despite this potential recovery, Wolfe Research believes unpredictable safety issues could continue to create downside risk.Get access to 10+ additional InvestingPro Tips and comprehensive financial analysis through the Pro Research Report, available exclusively on InvestingPro.
Wolfe Research analysts note that even with revenue recovery, stock recovery may be "transient and/or slow, due to much higher stock participation from short-duration investors." The firm also expressed concerns that Duchenne muscular dystrophy may eventually become a depleting market.
For a more positive outlook, Wolfe Research would need to see DMD revenue recovery and limb-girdle muscular dystrophy, myotonic dystrophy type 1, and facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy becoming more dominant in the company narrative, along with stronger financials and improved ability to manage cash and debt.
In other recent news, Sarepta Therapeutics has been in the spotlight following the announcement of a second patient death linked to its Elevidys treatment, leading to significant actions and reactions from various analysts. The company has suspended shipments of Elevidys for non-ambulatory Duchenne muscular dystrophy patients and withdrawn its fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance of $2.3-2.6 billion. TD Cowen has lowered its price target for Sarepta to $62, maintaining a Buy rating, while highlighting risks to Elevidys’ sales. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) downgraded the stock from Overweight to Equalweight, citing safety concerns, and reduced its price target to $40. UBS, however, reiterated a Buy rating with an $85 price target, despite regulatory uncertainties. H.C. Wainwright downgraded Sarepta to Sell, slashing its price target to $10, expressing concerns over the treatment’s risk profile. BMO Capital also downgraded the stock to Market Perform, adjusting its price target to $70, and noted the potential for significant pressure on Sarepta due to multiple uncertainties. These recent developments have prompted Sarepta to consider an enhanced immunosuppressive regimen to mitigate risks.
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