ING forecasts average gold price of $4,150 per ounce in 2026 amid central bank buy

Investing.com -- ING on Friday projects XAU/USD to average $4,150/oz in 2026, with expectations of $4,000/oz in the fourth quarter of 2025 and an annual average of $3,402/oz for this year.

On October 8, gold climbed beyond $4,000/oz for the first time, as renewed concerns about the U.S. economy and a looming government shutdown pushed the metal’s rally to new heights. It has gained over 50% this year.

"$4,000 is a historic breakthrough for gold. The precious metal has staged a record-breaking rally, doubling in less than two years, spurred by central bank buying as they diversify away from the US dollar, Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy, and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine," according to ING.

Central bank purchases remain a key driver for gold’s rally. In August, central banks added a net 15 tonnes to global gold reserves after holdings remained unchanged in July, according to World Gold Council data. The pace of central bank buying has doubled since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The National Bank of Poland has been the top buyer year-to-date, adding 67 tonnes to its reserves. Poland recently announced plans to increase its gold reserves from 20% to 30% of total reserves. Its gold holdings stood at 515 tonnes at the end of August.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan led purchases in August, while Bulgaria’s central bank and El Salvador’s Central Reserve Bank also acquired gold during the month.

China’s central bank continued its buying streak in September for the eleventh consecutive month, adding 40,000 troy ounces (1.24 tonnes) to reach total holdings of 74.06 million troy ounces (2,303.5 tonnes). Since resuming purchases in November 2024, China has acquired 39.2 tonnes of gold.

ING believes central banks will continue adding gold to their reserves due to economic uncertainty and efforts to diversify away from the US dollar.

The bank noted several factors supporting gold’s continued bull run: ongoing central bank purchases, Trump’s trade war, elevated geopolitical risks, expanding ETF holdings, and expectations for more Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Potential risks to gold’s outlook include a major market sell-off forcing investors to liquidate gold positions to raise cash, or demand destruction if prices remain high for an extended period.

In 2024, central banks purchased more than 1,000 tonnes of gold for the third consecutive year.