Oil prices steady as markets weigh new Trump tariffs, tight market

Investing.com--Oil prices steadied Tuesday as investors assessed the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes on key trade partners as well as lingering oversupply concerns from rising OPEC+ output.

At 08:35 ET (12:35 GMT), Brent Oil Futures expiring in September rose 0.1% to $69.66 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 0.1% to $67.90 per barrel.

Trump starts sending tariff letters; S. Korea, Japan face 25% levy

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday escalated his global trade campaign by notifying 14 countries that sharply higher tariffs will take effect on August 1. The list included major U.S. suppliers such as Japan and South Korea, along with smaller exporters like Serbia, Thailand, and Tunisia.

The tariff letters outlined a 25% levy on all goods from Japan and South Korea, while some nations face up to 40% tariffs.

Trump signed an executive order over the weekend extending the original July 9 deadline to August 1, giving countries a final window to negotiate. However, he said the deadline is “firm, but not 100% firm,” suggesting some flexibility for trade partners that actively engage.

The potential for steep U.S. tariffs on 14 countries, including large energy importers like Japan, South Korea, and India, could disrupt trade flows and hurt economic activity, and thus the demand for energy.

Market appears tight despite OPEC+ hike

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+, announced on Saturday that it will increase oil output by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, and warned that it will consider another similar hike for September.

The decision marks a continued rollback of the voluntary 2.2 million bpd in cuts that major producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia had initiated earlier this year to support prices.

"While prices initially slid yesterday following a larger-than-expected OPEC+ supply hike, the market managed to turn positive with Brent settling almost 1.9% higher on the day," said analysts at ING, in a note. "The increase in August Saudi official selling prices provided some comfort. Furthermore, the market is still tight in the near term. This is reflected in the strength in the prompt Brent timespread."

More losses likely in H2 - BCA

Oil markets only flinched in the face of the ultimate supply risk in June (the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz), according to analysts at BCA Research, in a note dated July 8.

“Therefore, the bar is now higher for market participants to become concerned about possible supply disruptions. Tensions would need to escalate substantially to faze oil investors,”  BCA Research said.

Instead, crude fundamentals will dominate oil market dynamics over the remainder of the year. In particular, bearish demand-side developments will maintain downside pressure on crude prices. 

“Bearish demand fundamentals will dominate crude’s price trajectory in H2,” BCA Research said. “OPEC is unlikely to backstop oil prices. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks will take a backseat in shaping oil market developments.”

Ayushman Ojha contributed to this article