Trump’s copper tariff exemption unlikely to alter market, Goldman says

Published 31/07/2025, 09:48
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS). maintained its copper price forecast despite the Trump administration’s surprise decision to exempt refined copper from import tariffs.

The bank expects London Metal Exchange (LME) copper to drop to a low of $9,550 per ton in August before rebounding to $9,700 per ton by December, according to analysts including Eoin Dismore in a recent note.

LME copper was trading at $9,668 per ton, down 0.3% at the time of the report.

Goldman analysts predict that following the announcement, copper cathode will likely flow into US LME warehouses due to high US copper cathode inventories, though large-scale re-export of cathode from the US is unlikely.

"While we are surprised by the near complete roll-back on the proposed copper tariffs, we think this shows the Trump Administration is still focused on security of supply for copper," the analysts wrote.

"The US can now shift focus to agreeing minerals deals overseas, and over time introducing tariffs," they added.

Goldman suggests the market should assign at least a 25% probability that the administration will impose a 15% tariff in 2027, or possibly earlier. This outlook should keep Comex prices at least at parity with the LME.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.