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Citi has reaffirmed its Buy rating on Allfunds Group Plc (ALLFG: NA) with a price target of EUR8.80, despite a recent development that may impact the company's earnings.
Allfunds disclosed after the market closed on Friday that UBS plans to replace Allfunds with Clearstream Fund Centre as its fund distribution partner for the acquired Credit Suisse business. This change is expected to occur on January 1, 2025, which violates an exclusivity agreement in place until June 2029.
Allfunds could face a revenue loss of approximately €14 million per annum, which translates to a 3-4% reduction in the firm's earnings per share (EPS) estimates.
The analyst from Citi expects that Allfunds' shares might experience a minor decline in value, possibly in the low-single-digits, when the market opens on Monday.
Despite this setback, Citi's analysis suggests that Allfunds may pursue compensation of around €65 million, a figure that corresponds to roughly 2% of the company's market capitalization.
Citi's stance remains optimistic about Allfunds' future, citing a valuation of about 11 times the forecasted FY 2026 consensus EPS, which does not fully account for the company's robust growth trajectory.
The firm projects double-digit revenue expansion for Allfunds through to FY 2026.
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