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On Tuesday, Stifel Canada adjusted its stance on Stelco Holdings Inc. (STLC:CN) (OTC: STZHF), downgrading the stock from Buy to Hold, while simultaneously raising the price target to Cdn$70.00 from Cdn$47.00.
This revision follows the acquisition offer from Cleveland Cliffs, which proposed to purchase Stelco at a price of $70 per share. This offer represents an 87% premium over Stelco's closing share price on Friday.
The analyst from Stifel Canada indicated that the offer from Cleveland Cliffs is favorable for Stelco's shareholders and recommended that they should tender to the proposal. The transaction multiples based on enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) are estimated at 8.2x, or 6.2x after accounting for synergies. This valuation stands in contrast to the previous target multiple of 6.0x and the 4.5x multiple prior to the announcement of the offer.
Despite acknowledging a slight regulatory risk associated with the deal, the analyst expressed confidence that the acquisition is likely to be completed. The revised price target and stock rating reflect the anticipated successful closure of this transaction.
In recognition of the company's growth, the analyst noted that the management, board, and employees of Stelco have earned commendation for achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32% from the initial public offering (IPO) price in 2017 to the current transaction price offered by Cleveland Cliffs.
The upgrade of the price target to Cdn$70.00 from the previous Cdn$47.00 is indicative of the new valuation of Stelco in light of the acquisition offer, while the downgrade to a Hold rating suggests that Stifel Canada sees limited upside for the stock beyond the proposed transaction price.
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