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Investing.com -- BMO Capital Markets has downgraded BHP (LON:BHPB) to a "market perform" rating after the stock reached its £20 target price, driven by higher iron ore prices and improved sentiment.
However, following recent updates, including cost increases and delays at BHP’s Jansen project, BMO has reassessed the stock’s valuation.
While the target price remains unchanged, the downgrade reflects a less compelling outlook due to a reduced cash flow forecast and limited dividend growth.
BMO’s downgrade stems primarily from the operational impact of the Jansen project.
The Stage 1 capex estimate has been revised upwards to U.S. $7–7.4 billion, a 22-29% increase from the previous US$5.7 billion, driven by cost inflation and construction delays.
Additionally, the timeline for Stage 1 production has shifted to mid-2027, six months later than previously expected.
The Stage 2 start-up is now projected for fiscal year 2031, a two-year delay from the previous forecast of 2029. With this uncertainty, BMO has raised its overall capex estimate for the Jansen project.
BMO has also revised its free cash flow (FCF) projections for FY26 and FY27 downward by 14% and 7%, respectively, due to these delays and increased costs.
Consequently, its EBITDA estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been slightly reduced by 1%, 3%, and 3%, respectively.
As a result, the company’s FCF yield is now expected to be lower than the sector average. For FY26 and FY27, BMO forecasts FCF yields of 5.1% and 4.5%, compared to the peer average of 6.3% and 7.8%.
This reduction in cash flow growth, combined with the lower-than-average yield, suggests limited upside for BHP’s stock, leading to the downgrade.
The revised valuation indicates that BHP’s stock is now fairly priced at £20, with its EV/EBITDA multiples for FY26 and FY27 at 5.9x and 6.6x, respectively, in line with sector peers.
While iron ore remains a strong contributor to BHP’s revenue, the impact of copper, coal, and nickel on earnings has been more muted.
BMO’s updated forecasts for these commodities reflect only slight changes in production and pricing assumptions.
Despite these adjustments, BMO retains a positive long-term view on BHP’s iron ore operations.
However, given the Jansen project’s delays and higher costs, coupled with the reduced cash flow outlook and limited potential for dividend increases, BMO sees little upside at current levels.
With BHP’s stock priced at £19.73 as of July 25, 2025, the £20 target price implies only modest upside potential.