BP lifts production outlook, flags weaker trading into Q3 earnings; shares slip

Investing.com -- BP said on Tuesday it now expects third-quarter upstream production to rise from the previous three months, supported by higher output in both oil production and gas and low carbon units, with increased gas volumes at its U.S. shale unit bpx energy as a key contributor.

The company previously guided for a slightly lower output than the second quarter’s 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

BP shares slid 1.5% in London trading after the update. 

The energy giant added that its oil trading result for the quarter was weak.

Brent crude averaged $69.13 a barrel in the third quarter, up from $67.88 in the prior three-month period, BP said. Its refining margin averaged $15.8 a barrel in the third quarter of 2025, up from $11.9 a barrel in the previous quarter.

Jefferies analysts said the update implies “<5% above consensus estimates,” noting that higher upstream volumes alongside what the bank described as a “robust refining margin of $15.8/bbl in 3Q25” are set to drive the beat.

However, analysts added that the trading uplift seen in the previous quarter is “not repeated,” with BP itself flagging a weak oil trading result.

"Overall a fall q/q on net income (NI) is still the case," they added. 

In the gas and low-carbon business, BP said lower natural gas benchmarks outside Henry Hub will trim about $100 million from realizations, while gas marketing and trading delivered what it called an average performance.

The company said it will also book around $0.1 billion in higher exploration write-offs compared with the prior quarter.

Realizations in oil production and operations are seen broadly flat, with BP citing timing effects linked to its barrels in the Gulf of Mexico and the UAE. The company also flagged post-tax asset impairment charges in a range of $200 million to $500 million across segments, which will be treated as adjusting items outside underlying earnings.

The customers and products division is set to benefit from seasonally stronger volumes in retail with flat fuels margins.

Refining margins are expected to add $300 million to $400 million, with a lower level of turnaround work helping offset seasonal compliance costs and the impact of weather-related disruption at the Whiting refinery in the United States.

Net debt is expected to remain close to $26 billion. BP said the figure reflects the planned redemption of $1.2 billion in hybrid bonds and around $1 billion in higher tax payments, partly offset by a working capital release.