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Investing.com -- Galp on Tuesday released a solid third-quarter trading update, reporting working interest production of 115,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for the period, ahead of the 111kboe/d consensus cited by Jefferies and above the previous quarter’s 113kboe/d.
Refining margin rose to $9.5 per barrel versus the consensus of $7.6 and last quarter’s $6.1. Raw materials processed rose to 22.7 million boe compared with consensus at 21.3 and 2Q at 21.1.
Jefferies analyst Mark Wilson said he expects midstream contribution, while down quarter-on-quarter, "will be supportive, including Venture Global (VG) cargoes that started in 2Q25."
On the commercial side, oil products sales were 2.0 million tonnes, slightly higher than the 1.9 million tonne market view and up from 1.88 million tonnes in the second quarter.
Natural gas and power sales were softer at 3.6TWh and 1.8TWh, against the consensus of 4.2TWh and 1.9TWh, respectively.
Renewables gross installed capacity stood at 1.7GW, in line with expectations, while power generation of 732GWh fell short of the anticipated 927GWh.
Realised electricity prices were €38/MWh, modestly below the €41/MWh forecast, with a 43% discount to the Iberian pool price, slightly wider than the prior quarter.
Wilson forecasts more than 10% upside to the consensus EBITDA of €800 million for the quarter due to the combination of higher upstream volumes, strong refining economics and seasonal support from the commercial unit.
He also sees potential for more than 10% upside to net income versus the current €279 million market estimate and a similar uplift to operating cash flow, even after allowing for higher cash tax outflows.