Hilton Grand Vacations stock jumps on guidance despite Q1 miss

Published 01/05/2025, 16:56
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (NYSE:HGV) shares surged nearly 10% Thursday after the company reaffirmed its full-year outlook, soothing concerns following a first quarter earnings miss. The vacation ownership company reported adjusted earnings of $0.09 per share, well below the $0.59 consensus estimate.

Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.15 billion, missing analyst expectations of $1.25 billion. The company also posted a net loss of $17 million, widening from a $4 million loss in the year-ago period.

Despite these softer headline numbers, HGV maintained its full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance between $1.125 billion and $1.165 billion. The company also highlighted a 14% year-over-year increase in total contract sales to $721 million.

“We delivered solid results… combining to produce strong growth in transactions, VPG and contract sales,” CEO Mark Wang said in a statement. He noted ongoing progress in process improvements and operational efficiencies.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analyst Stephen Grambling said the results signal strength in the company’s positioning, particularly after integrating Bluegreen Vacations (NYSE:BXG). “We view HGV’s results and reiterated guidance not only reflecting resilience at the high end, but also evidence of idiosyncratic tailwinds from integrating the Bluegreen portfolio,” Grambling wrote.

He also noted that HGV appears to outperform peers in value per guest: “even stronger VPG than peer TNL.” Grambling acknowledged macro concerns but emphasized valuation support, stating, “shares appear to already be factoring in this view at 8.5x EV/EBITDA… and a ~20% FCF yield.”

Hilton Grand Vacations ended the quarter with 725,000 members and repurchased 3.9 million shares for $150 million. The stock now trades at a discount to historical valuation metrics despite steady growth trends.

While short-term earnings lagged expectations, management’s ability to hold guidance helped shift sentiment sharply upward. Investors appear willing to look past early weakness in favor of long-term execution and integration benefits.

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