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Investing.com -- The European Central Bank appears increasingly comfortable with its current 2% policy rate, viewing it as sufficient to manage economic uncertainty and tolerate minor deviations from its inflation target, according to Deutsche Bank analysis.
Following the September ECB meeting, markets are now pricing in a lower probability of further rate cuts, aligning with Deutsche Bank’s baseline view of a 2% terminal rate.
The bank forecasts the next policy move will be a rate hike at the end of 2026.
ECB staff revised down headline and core inflation forecasts for 2027 to 1.9% and 1.8% respectively, but President Lagarde described this as a "minimal deviation" from the target that isn’t relevant for policy decisions.
She characterized the 2027 forecast as a "big 1.9%" and didn’t mention the core figure.
The ECB’s growth forecast for 2025 was revised upward from 0.9% to 1.2%, while 2026 was slightly reduced to 1.0% from 1.1%, with 2027 unchanged at 1.3%. Lagarde noted positive underlying momentum in surveys, continued labor market strength, and benefits from rate cuts and fiscal easing.
The balance of risks to growth is now considered "more balanced" following the EU-US trade deal, which reduced the risk of EU retaliation and decreased trade policy uncertainty.
Deutsche Bank maintains that 2% is likely the terminal rate in this monetary policy cycle, though it acknowledges some risk of further easing within 6-9 months if inflation expectations begin to de-anchor during the expected inflation undershoot in early 2026.