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Investing.com -- Barclays forecasts U.K. headline inflation to remain unchanged at 3.8% year-over-year in August, while core inflation is expected to ease slightly to 3.6% from 3.7% in July.
The bank’s latest economic research report indicates that food prices will likely drive inflation in the food, alcohol and tobacco category higher, with an expected acceleration of 0.3 percentage points to 5.4% year-over-year.
Energy price inflation is projected to increase to 2.5% from 1.4% in July, primarily due to base effects from weak pump prices and liquid fuels recorded in August last year.
Within services inflation, which is forecast to decrease from 5.0% to 4.8%, hotel prices are expected to contract by 1% month-over-month in August. Barclays anticipates airfares will remain flat after a strong 30% monthly expansion in July that was attributed to school holiday timing.
For core goods inflation, the bank predicts a slight decline from 1.6% to 1.5% year-over-year, with mixed signals from car price data showing potential downside risks.
The U.K. Retail Price Index (RPI) is forecast at 407.7, representing a 4.57% year-over-year increase, down from 5.43% in July. This projection is slightly below the 4.59% currently priced into the RPI fixings market.
The official U.K. inflation figures for August are scheduled for release on September 17.