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Investing.com -- Bank of America (BofA) has expressed the view that the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) is unlikely to revert back to 4%, despite questions from clients. This follows the recent drop in 1-month HIBOR from 4% to 0.58%.
The bank has based its opinion on the workings of the Linked Exchange Rate System (LERS). According to BofA, the front-end HIBOR will only match the US Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) if the market is inclined to execute the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) carry trade and reduce the aggregate balance’s outstanding size.
BofA highlighted that the current market situation differs significantly from previous weak-side convertibility undertaking (CU) cycles. During these periods, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) would sell US dollars to maintain the 7.85-level. However, the current US dollar environment is bearish, and the market is factoring in Federal Reserve cuts.
Furthermore, inflows into the HKD remain robust due to the positive momentum in Chinese equities. BofA believes these factors will result in HIBOR and the HKD carry trade behaving differently than in previous weak-side CU cycles.
Given the global interest in the USD carry trade is weak, BofA suggests that the current market interest to buy USDHKD at 7.85, which triggers USD selling by the HKMA, will be relatively limited compared to previous cycles when the HIBOR-SOFR gap was wide. This reasoning has led BofA to project that HIBOR will likely maintain a lower level for a longer period.
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