BOJ keeps interest rates flat, but flags rate hikes on rising inflation, GDP

Published 31/07/2025, 04:16
© Reuters.

Investing.com-- The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged in a unanimous decision on Thursday, but said that it will hike interest rates in the future if the economy and inflation increase in line with its forecasts.

The central bank hiked its inflation and economic growth forecasts for 2025.

The BOJ left its benchmark policy rate at 0.5%, with all nine members of the board supporting the decision. The central bank was widely expected to keep rates steady, amid near-term uncertainty over U.S. trade tariffs and a fractured political outlook for Japan. 

Board members were seen hiking their expectations for consumer price index inflation and gross domestic product growth in 2025. 

The BOJ now sees core CPI– which excludes fresh food and energy prices- between 2.8% and 3.0% in 2025, higher than its prior forecast of 2.2% and 2.4%.

Headline CPI is also expected between 2.7% and 2.8%, up from prior forecasts of 2.0% and 2.3%.

The BOJ also slightly hiked its 2025 GDP forecast to a range of 0.5% to 0.7% from 0.4% to 0.6%. 

The central bank said that with real interest rates still remaining “significantly low,” it will “continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation” if its economic forecasts come to pass.

Governor Kazuo Ueda had signaled as much earlier in July, keeping markets on edge over any potentially hawkish signals from the central bank. Ueda will speak at a press conference later in the day. 

The Japanese yen firmed sharply after the BOJ’s comments, with the USD/JPY pair falling 0.5% to 148.74 yen. Japanese stocks remained upbeat, with the Nikkei 225 adding nearly 0.6%. 

Thursday’s hold was widely expected, with the BOJ seen unwilling to act amid heightened uncertainty over Japan’s political outlook. The BOJ decision comes about a week after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost its majority in the upper house. 

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