Capital Economics expects RBA to cut rates as inflation trends lower

Published 05/08/2025, 09:28
Capital Economics expects RBA to cut rates as inflation trends lower

Investing.com - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting next Tuesday, according to a new report from Capital Economics released Monday.

The economic research firm cited inflation trending lower and now within "striking distance of the midpoint of the RBA’s 2-3% target" as the primary justification for the anticipated rate reduction, which would mark the central bank’s first easing move in its current cycle.

Capital Economics noted that while the RBA Board will likely maintain its vigilance regarding the "limited spare capacity in the economy and the labour market," these concerns are unlikely to prevent action given the inflation progress.

The firm projects further rate cuts beyond market expectations, maintaining its "below-consensus terminal rate forecast of 2.85%" as it believes "incoming data flow will ultimately disappoint" regarding economic strength.

The report suggests a more aggressive easing cycle than most analysts anticipate, with Capital Economics expressing confidence in its outlook despite acknowledging the "nascent recovery and still-tight labour market" that could potentially slow the pace of future rate reductions.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.