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Investing.com -- Central banks across Europe are navigating economic uncertainties as they prepare for upcoming policy meetings, with most expected to hold rates steady amid growth concerns and inflation pressures.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to keep its deposit rate unchanged at 2% during its September 11 meeting, according to UBS analysts who believe the ECB’s easing cycle has concluded.
The bank is expected to maintain its "meeting-by-meeting" approach while acknowledging it is "in a good place" with current rates.
Despite forecasts of economic stagnation in the Eurozone during the second half of 2025 due to U.S. tariff measures, UBS does not anticipate further rate cuts from the ECB.
This stance is influenced by substantial fiscal stimulus for defense across the EU and infrastructure in Germany, which should become more apparent in early 2026.
For the Bank of England (BoE), analysts predict rates will remain at 4% during its September 18 meeting, followed by a 25 basis point cut to 3.75% in November.
This gradual easing approach depends on improvements in underlying services inflation, though the timing could be affected by any inflation surprises before the November meeting.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to maintain its policy rate at 2% during its September 25 meeting, with no further cuts anticipated. After a 25 basis point cut in June, the SNB has shown less concern about Swiss franc strength than expected.
Recent inflation surprises in June and July, combined with limited currency intervention, support the hold position. UBS has removed a previously forecast September 2026 rate hike, now predicting no increases before December 2026.
Sweden’s Riksbank faces a fragile domestic recovery, leading UBS to forecast a final 25 basis point cut to 1.75% in September. However, this could be delayed if August inflation data doesn’t confirm an expected decline in core inflation.
Markets are currently pricing in 9 basis points of cuts for September and 19 basis points total by year-end.