Intel stock extends gains after report of possible U.S. government stake
Investing.com - The Federal Reserve is tipped to leave interest rates on hold throughout the rest of this year as policymakers focus more on controlling inflation than weak economic activity, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS).
At its latest meeting, the Fed kept rates steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, noting signs of relative resilience in the wider economy.
But the central bank still flagged worries over rising risks from price growth and unemployment, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell in particular pointing to uncertainty around the impact of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff agenda.
While the White House has recently delayed some of its heightened tariffs on most countries, the pauses are temporary and due to expire in the coming months. Even with the easing trade tensions, universal 10% duties and levies on items like steel, aluminum, autos and auto parts remain in place. By some estimates, the U.S. effective tariff is at its highest level since the 1930s.
Economists have warned that the elevated levies could weigh on the world’s largest economy. But, in a note to clients, the Morgan Stanley analysts argued that the Fed is more likely to treat inflation as a "bigger problem" than tepid growth.
"While we expect global inflation to moderate eventually, the U.S. differs from the rest of the world because of the imposition of tariffs," the brokerage said. In the U.S., a fall in inflation towards the Fed’s 2% target level is expected to be interrupted by "some pass-through from tariffs that peaks" at the end of 2025, it added.
Against this backdrop, the analysts anticipate that the Fed will restart its easing cycle in March 2026 and "eventually cut" past the so-called "neutral" rate that neither helps nor hinders growth.