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Investing.com -- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data released the February 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations today. The survey indicates that while short-term inflation expectations have slightly increased, medium- and long-term inflation expectations have stayed the same. The survey also reveals an increase in consumer pessimism about their financial situation for the upcoming year. Expectations regarding unemployment, delinquency, and credit access have notably worsened, while spending growth expectations have significantly increased. The probability of employees voluntarily leaving their jobs has fallen to its lowest level since July 2023.
In terms of inflation, the median inflation expectations rose by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1% at the one-year horizon and remained at 3.0% for the three-year and five-year horizons. There has been an increase in uncertainty regarding future inflation outcomes across all three horizons. Median home price growth expectations and year-ahead commodity price expectations for all commodities have also increased.
In the labor market, the mean probability of higher unemployment rates in the U.S. a year from now has risen by 5.4 percentage points to 39.4%, the highest since September 2023. The mean probability of job loss in the next 12 months has slightly decreased to 14.1%. The probability of voluntarily leaving a job in the next 12 months has dropped by 2.3 percentage points to 17.6%, the lowest level since July 2023.
For household finances, the median expected growth in household income has slightly increased to 3.1% in February. Median nominal household spending growth expectations have risen by 0.6 percentage point to 5.0%. However, perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago have worsened, with a larger share of households reporting it is harder to get credit. The perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months has risen to 14.6%, the highest level since April 2020.
Expectations for the year ahead show an increase in the median expectation for a change in taxes at the current income level, while the expected growth in government debt has decreased to 5.0%, the lowest since July 2017. The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months has risen to 25.4%.
Expectations about households’ financial situations for the year ahead have notably deteriorated, with the share of households expecting a worse financial situation in one year from now rising to 27.4%, the highest level since November 2023. The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now has dropped by 3.3 percentage points to 37.0%, the lowest level since December 2023.
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