Will U.K. labor resilience keep the Bank of England hawkish?

Published 16/09/2025, 08:32

Investing.com -- The U.K. jobs market showed resilience in August with only modest payrolled job losses of 8,000, unlike the significant deterioration seen in the US labor market this summer.

Earnings data remained steady at 4.7-4.8% year-over-year, aligning with expectations and providing little reason for the Bank of England to shift its current monetary policy stance.

ING’s U.K. economist James Smith noted that Tuesday’s data is unlikely to significantly influence the BoE’s decision-making process, as the central bank placed limited emphasis on the cooling job market during its August meeting.

"Barring a surprise spike in job losses, today’s data was never likely to move the needle too much," Smith said.

The GBP/USD strengthened against the dollar on Tuesday as markets interpreted the data as supporting the BoE’s ability to maintain its hawkish position longer.

ING still narrowly favors a November rate cut but acknowledges that tomorrow’s inflation data could alter this outlook.

August inflation figures will be released on Wednesday, with services inflation expected to decline, though perhaps not as much as the consensus anticipates.

A surprise increase in inflation not driven by volatile categories could prompt ING to reconsider its November rate cut prediction.

ING maintains a year-end target for GBP/USD at 1.38, which it suggests could be reached earlier than anticipated, especially if Thursday’s BoE meeting proves positive for sterling as expected.

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