Asia FX weak as Trump’s April 2 tariffs approach; Aussie flat after RBA hold

Published 01/04/2025, 05:10
© Reuters.

Investing.com-- Most Asian currencies weakened slightly on Tuesday, while the dollar stalled in anticipation of U.S. President Donald Trump’s unveiling of more trade tariffs later this week.

The Australian dollar slightly trimmed its early gains after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged as widely expected while also maintaining its data-driven approach to further easing. 

The Japanese yen cooled after rising sharply in the past two sessions on increased safe haven demand, as investors pivoted into some risk-driven assets that were battered by concerns over Trump’s tariffs in recent weeks. 

Barring the yen, most regional currencies were also nursing a weak first quarter of 2025 as heightened trade tensions over the U.S. eroded appetite for risk-driven assets. Sentiment was further soured by increased geopolitical ructions in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine. 

AUDUSD up slightly after RBA holds as expected

The Australian dollar’s AUD/USD pair rose about 0.1%, trimming early gains after the RBA kept interest rates steady at 4.1%.

But the central bank flagged heightened uncertainty over the Australian and global economy, especially in the face of increased U.S. trade tariffs.

While the central bank did flag some progress towards bringing down inflation, which fell in line with its forecasts, it reiterated its data-driven approach to future rate cuts, after a 25 basis point cut in February.

Analysts expect the central bank to next cut rates in May, after the Australian federal elections. But the RBA’s easing cycle is expected to be shallow amid sticky inflation and a strong labor market. 

Dollar steady as Trump’s ‘liberation day’ looms 

The dollar index and dollar index futures fell 0.1% in Asian trade, keeping to a tight range ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement.

Trump will unveil his plans for reciprocal tariffs on April 2 at 15:00 ET (19:00 GMT), Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview on Monday. Trump has repeatedly touted April 2 as "liberation day."

The U.S. President is expected to impose tariffs on countries with large trade surpluses with the U.S., and will match the duties imposed by said countries on U.S. goods. 

Recent reports said Trump will target a bigger set of countries with higher tariffs- a move that could unsettle global trade, especially given that major economies such as China, Europe, Canada, and Mexico have all vowed retaliatory measures. 

Uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs also factored into greater fears of a potential U.S. recession this year- a notion that dragged down the dollar in recent weeks. 

Uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs weighed on most Asian units. The Japanese yen’s USD/JPY pair fell 0.2% after a nearly 5% drop through Q1, as safe haven demand was elevated by uncertainty over Trump’s policies.

Data on Tuesday showed a mild, unexpected improvement in Japan’s unemployment rate. 

The Chinese yuan’s USD/CNY pair rose 0.1%, even as private purchasing managers index data showed better-than-expected growth in the manufacturing sector, mirroring a government reading from Monday. China is set to be a major target of Trump’s tariffs.

The Singapore dollar’s USD/SGD pair was flat, while the Indian rupee’s USD/INR pair hovered around the mid-85 rupee level. 

The South Korean won’s USD/KRW pair fell 0.2% after local media reports said the country’s top court will rule on impeached President Yun Suk Yeol later this week.




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