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Investing.com - Bank of America expects the AUD/USD uptrend to continue if upcoming U.S. payrolls data falls below consensus expectations, according to a research note released on July 25, 2025.
The bank forecasts U.S. payroll growth of just 60,000 jobs compared to the broader market consensus of over 100,000, with the unemployment rate potentially rising back to 4.2%. BofA analysts believe such data would reinforce the market narrative of weaker U.S. economic indicators driving the dollar lower in the second half of 2025.
Among all USD/G10 currency pairs, BofA identifies AUD/USD as showing the clearest trend continuation signal for a weaker U.S. dollar. The bank notes that residual call skew rose for the Australian dollar last week despite unchanged spot prices.
Technical indicators support this outlook, with moderate up/down volatility and the spot price maintaining position above its 50-day simple moving average, suggesting the uptrend is not overextended.
BofA cautions that the primary risk to this bullish AUD/USD view would be unexpectedly strong U.S. economic data combined with hawkish guidance from the Federal Reserve, which could trigger a U.S. dollar rally.
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