Bullish indicating open at $55-$60, IPO prices at $37
Market sentiment around the EUR/CHF currency pair appears to be shifting, according to analysts at Citi.
The recent fiscal measures in Germany have contributed to a partial reconnection of the EUR/CHF exchange rate with interest rate differentials. However, Citi analysts suggest that these factors may now be fully reflected in the current price.
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) position, which has maintained a dovish stance, could be further emphasized if there are unfavorable developments regarding tariffs as the April 2 deadline approaches. This potential widening of the ECB’s dovish premium could impact the EUR/CHF exchange rate.
In addition, the upcoming Swiss National Bank (SNB) meeting this week is not expected to significantly weaken the Swiss Franc. Citi’s analysts predict that the SNB’s realistic options are limited to either a hawkish interest rate cut, which may signal a pause in policy, or maintaining the current rates.
Furthermore, Citi points out that there seems to be a considerable amount of optimism already factored into the market regarding a peace plan for Ukraine. Given these combined elements, Citi analysts believe that the recent rally in the EURCHF exchange rate might have reached its limit.
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