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FOREX-Dollar starts 2021 in the cellar with a hangover

Published 04/01/2021, 06:00
Updated 04/01/2021, 06:06
© Reuters.

* Dollar softens against most majors; virus worries lift yen
* Focus turns to Georgia Senate race
* Bitcoin steadies after weekend records

By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, Jan 4 (Reuters) - The dollar started the new year
by slipping broadly on Monday as investors sold it for just
about everything else in the Asia session, wagering the world's
pandemic recovery will drive other currencies higher.
The euro EUR=EBS , which had dipped on New Year's Eve
profit-taking, rose 0.3% to $1.2252. Sterling GBP= firmed to
$1.3698, levels last seen in early 2018, and the Chinese yuan
CNY= leapt 0.9% to a 30-month high of 6.4647 per dollar.
The safe-haven yen JPY=EBS rose 0.3% to 102.94 per dollar,
and looked to test resistance at 102.55, after Japan's Prime
Minister, Yoshihide Suga, said his government is mulling a state
of emergency in Tokyo as infections rise. The Australian and New Zealand dollars each gained about
0.3% to hold just below multi-year peaks. AUD/
"I think he market is still in this look-through mood," said
Bank of Singapore currency analyst Moh Siong Sim.
"People are looking through pockets of bad news, and the
virus resurgence, because of a few things that are supportive,"
he said, chiefly referring to the vaccine rollout but also
mentioning U.S. stimulus and the Brexit trade deal.
Low U.S. interest rates, massive U.S. budget and trade
deficits and a belief that rebounding world trade will drive
non-dollar currencies higher have set the dollar on a downward
course that has gathered pace as more investors piled in.
The dollar index =USD posted its first annual loss since
2017 last year and has fallen roughly 13% from a three-year peak
hit at the height of the pandemic panic in March.
It was last 0.08% weaker at 89.688 and not far above a more
than 2-1/2 year low of 89.515 made last week.

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HANGOVER
The softening dollar boosted commodity prices and pushed
bitcoin as well as several Asian currencies to milestone highs.
The Singapore dollar SGD=D3 hit its highest since April
2018 on Monday after data the city-state's growth shrinking by
less than expected last year. The rising yuan pulled the Malaysian ringgit MYR= and
South Korean won KRW= to multi-year highs as well, while the
Indonesian rupiah IDR= leapt more than 1% and cryptocurrencies
found new peaks. Bitcoin BTC=BTSP on Monday was a little off Sunday's
all-time top of $34,800 at $33,491. An enormous rally has
carried it up 800% since March as institutional investors seem
to have turned buyers. Gold was up 1% at a two-month high of
$1,922.
Ahead on the radar, investors are focused on a runoff
election in the U.S. state of Georgia on Tuesday which will
determine control of the Senate. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting due on
Wednesday should offer more detail on discussions about making
their forward policy guidance more explicit and the chance of a
further increase in asset buying this year.
The data calendar includes a raft of manufacturing surveys
across the globe, which will show how industry is coping with
the spread of the coronavirus, and the closely watched ISM
surveys of U.S. factories and services.
Chinese factory activity continued to accelerate in
December, though the PMI missed forecasts at 53.0. "The global economy is closer to a more sustainable growth
recovery amid unprecedented fiscal and monetary support,"
Maybank currency analysts said in a note.
In this climate, they wrote, cyclical currencies such as the
Aussie, kiwi and those of Asian exporters can benefit - with low
global rates increasing the appeal of higher-yielders such as
the rupiah, ringgit, rupee and yuan.
"On net...the dollar can see its weakness stay further
entrenched."

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========================================================
Currency bid prices at 12:58PM in Singapore (0458 GMT)
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Euro/Dollar EUR=EBS $1.2248 $1.2218 +0.24% +0.24% +1.2259 +1.2211
Dollar/Yen JPY=D3 102.9850 103.2900 -0.27% -0.27% +103.3100 +102.9700
Euro/Yen EURJPY= 126.12 126.15 -0.02% -0.63% +126.5200 +126.1100
Dollar/Swiss CHF=EBS 0.8841 0.8847 -0.06% -0.06% +0.8845 +0.8829
Sterling/Dollar GBP=D3 1.3680 1.3662 +0.11% +0.11% +1.3697 +1.3645
Dollar/Canadian CAD=D3 1.2703 1.2734 -0.36% -0.24% +1.2735 +1.2696
Aussie/Dollar AUD=D3 0.7702 0.7693 +0.12% +0.12% +0.7721 +0.7682
NZ NZD=D3 0.7192 0.7181 +0.17% +0.17% +0.7207 +0.7183
Dollar/Dollar


All spots FX=
Tokyo spots AFX=
Europe spots EFX=
Volatilities FXVOL=
Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ TKYFX

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