HSBC sees EUR/USD reaching 1.20 by year-end despite Eurozone structural issues

Published 10/10/2025, 14:28
© Reuters.

Investing.com - HSBC maintains its EUR/USD year-end target of 1.20 despite acknowledging that upward momentum in the currency pair has recently faltered.

The global banking giant notes that while EUR/USD experienced a strong rally during the first half of the year, this positive trend has since lost steam. HSBC attributes part of this slowdown to scaled-back expectations regarding Germany’s multi-year fiscal stimulus program, alongside renewed political uncertainties in France.

HSBC highlights a counterintuitive dynamic affecting the euro, observing that Eurozone current account surpluses—typically considered positive for currencies—may actually represent a weakness for the EUR. The bank explains this occurs because Eurozone surpluses have historically weighed on the currency as savings are reinvested outside the region.

The financial institution points out that earlier hopes for a structural shift driven by Germany’s fiscal expansion, which might have spurred growth and strengthened the euro, "is not happening at scale." This assessment suggests fundamental limitations to euro strength despite positive current account figures.

HSBC concludes that while the EUR/USD will likely "grind higher" toward its 1.20 target by year-end, this movement will be propelled more by cyclical forces rather than structural improvements, as the Eurozone continues to face two fundamental features that constrain the euro despite progress made since the Eurozone debt crisis.

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