UBS lowers Swiss franc forecast as SNB intervention falls short

Published 09/07/2025, 12:34
© Reuters.

Investing.com - UBS has revised its Swiss franc forecast after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) showed less intervention in currency markets than expected, despite recent franc strength.

The bank lowered its year-end EUR/CHF target to 0.9400, tempering expectations that SNB policy would drive the euro higher against the Swiss franc. UBS had previously projected the pair would reach 0.9650 by the end of 2025.

For the USD/CHF pair, UBS maintained its bearish outlook, still projecting further downside to 0.7650 by the end of 2025. The pair has already reached and traded through UBS’s end-Q2 target of 0.8050.

The revised forecast comes after UBS observed that while the SNB likely intervened with approximately 5 billion in estimated CHF sales in April, it conducted no such operations in May. This intervention pattern was less persistent than UBS had anticipated.

In April, UBS had expected the SNB would "react to the threat from franc strength to its price stability objective by resuming CHF sales forcefully," but the central bank’s more limited intervention has prompted the forecast adjustment.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.