UBS pushes back RBA rate cut forecast, holds firm on AUD/USD optimism

Published 09/07/2025, 09:26
© Reuters.

Investing.com - The Australian dollar rallied near its year-to-date high after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly held interest rates steady at 3.85% on Tuesday.

The AUD/USD gained 0.7-0.8% following the decision, approaching the 0.659 level that marks its highest point this year. In an unprecedented move, the RBA also published its vote count, revealing a 6-3 split among board members.

Governor Michele Bullock confirmed the central bank remains on an easing path, but indicated that a better-than-feared global economic outlook and a slight uptick in monthly CPI data influenced the majority decision to wait for additional economic data.

The board specifically cited upcoming payrolls data due July 17 and second-quarter CPI figures scheduled for release on July 30 as key inputs for future decisions.

UBS now forecasts the RBA will implement rate cuts in August, November, and February 2026, revising its previous expectation of cuts in July, August, and February. The investment bank maintains its projection for a terminal rate of 3.1%, slightly above current money market pricing, while remaining bullish on the AUD/USD.

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