UBS sees further upside potential for the pound, GBP/USD target revelead

Published 02/07/2025, 10:26
© Reuters

Investing.com - The British pound extended gains against the U.S. dollar, primarily due to broad dollar weakness rather than specific strength in the pound, according to UBS analysis.

The modest upward movement in the EUR/GBP pair supports this assessment, indicating the pound’s rise is more about dollar dynamics than inherent sterling strength. Recent UK economic data points to a slowing labor market, though UBS believes the Bank of England will maintain its gradual approach to monetary policy easing with inflation still elevated.

UBS forecasts only two additional 25 basis point rate cuts from the Bank of England by year-end, which should create attractive carry opportunities for the pound against several peer currencies. The firm specifically highlights CHF-funded GBP carry trades as favorable given the interest rate differential between the currencies.

Against the U.S. dollar, UBS sees further upside potential for the pound despite the recent rally, targeting 1.40 at the end of its forecast horizon. However, the analysis warns that the latest GBP/USD rally increases the risk of a positioning-driven setback, which UBS would view as an opportunity to hedge USD positions if the pair retreats toward 1.36.

On a six to twelve-month horizon, UBS identifies upside potential in other European risk proxies like the Norwegian krone and Swedish krona against the pound, while also recommending selling upside risks in GBP/NOK above 14.10 for yield enhancement over the next one to three months.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.