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InvestingPro’s Fair Value model demonstrated its precision in May 2024 by identifying significant overvaluation in Establishment Labs Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:ESTA), a medical technology company specializing in breast aesthetics. The subsequent 40% decline in share price has validated this analysis, showcasing the power of data-driven valuation models in identifying market inefficiencies. Investors seeking similar opportunities can explore current overvalued stocks on our Most overvalued list.
Establishment Labs, with a market capitalization of approximately $1.07 billion, has been expanding its global footprint in the aesthetic medical device market. When InvestingPro’s Fair Value model flagged the stock, ESTA was trading at $56.57, significantly above its calculated fair value of $37.09. At that time, the company reported annual revenue of $155.79 million with negative EBITDA of $61.20 million.
The stock’s subsequent performance strongly validated InvestingPro’s analysis. From the initial signal in May 2024 to September 2025, ESTA shares declined to $36.84, delivering a 40.57% return for investors who acted on the overvaluation warning. This movement aligned closely with the model’s estimated downside potential of 34.44%.
Recent developments have supported the original thesis. While revenue has grown to $177.42 million, the company continues to face profitability challenges with negative EBITDA of $54.03 million. A CEO transition and mixed earnings results have added to market uncertainty. However, several analysts maintain positive long-term outlooks, with firms like Canaccord Genuity and BTIG initiating coverage with Buy ratings, suggesting potential stabilization at current levels.
InvestingPro’s Fair Value methodology combines multiple valuation approaches, including discounted cash flow analysis, peer comparisons, and market-based metrics. This comprehensive approach helps identify pricing inefficiencies before the broader market recognizes them. The model’s success with ESTA demonstrates its effectiveness in detecting overvalued securities, particularly in the healthcare sector where traditional metrics may not tell the complete story.
For investors seeking to identify similar opportunities and make more informed investment decisions, InvestingPro offers advanced valuation tools, real-time alerts, and comprehensive financial analysis. With features like Fair Value calculations, financial health scores, and proprietary metrics, InvestingPro helps investors stay ahead of market movements and identify both risks and opportunities before they become apparent to the broader market.