Is this U.S.-China selloff a buy? A top Wall Street voice weighs in
When InvestingPro’s Fair Value models flagged NYSE:LOMA as significantly overvalued in December 2024, the cement manufacturer’s stock was trading at $13.12. Nine months later, this analysis has proven remarkably accurate, with the stock declining to $7.90, protecting investors from a 40% downturn. This success demonstrates the power of comprehensive valuation analysis in identifying market inefficiencies and protecting portfolio value. Investors seeking similar opportunities can explore current overvalued stocks on the Most overvalued list.
Loma Negra , Argentina’s largest cement manufacturer, showed initial signs of fundamental pressure when InvestingPro’s models identified the overvaluation. Despite strong revenue of $855.94 million and EBITDA of $201.15 million at the time, the stock had experienced an unsustainable rally, gaining nearly 30% in November 2024 alone. This rapid appreciation, combined with emerging market risks and sector-specific challenges, contributed to the bearish Fair Value assessment.
The subsequent performance validated InvestingPro’s analysis. The stock began a steady decline in early 2025, with fundamental deterioration following the technical weakness. Recent Q2 2025 results missed expectations, with revenue dropping to $553.79 million and EBITDA falling to $125.41 million. Despite several prominent analysts, including Citi and Morgan Stanley, maintaining bullish views during this period, the stock continued its downward trajectory, reaching multi-month lows in August 2025.
InvestingPro’s Fair Value methodology combines multiple valuation approaches, including discounted cash flow analysis, peer comparisons, and historical trading ranges. This comprehensive framework helped identify Loma Negra’s unsustainable valuation with remarkable precision, as evidenced by the 0.0215 accuracy score of the original analysis. The model’s estimate of 38.95% downside potential proved particularly prescient, with the stock ultimately declining by 39.79%.
The success of this analysis highlights the importance of robust valuation tools in making informed investment decisions. Learn more about InvestingPro to access Fair Value analyses, financial health scores, and comprehensive fundamental data that can help protect your portfolio from similar downside risks. With markets continuing to present both opportunities and challenges, having access to professional-grade analytical tools has never been more crucial.