NCR Atleos validates fair value model with 49% return since March 2024

Published 07/05/2025, 12:04
NCR Atleos validates fair value model with 49% return since March 2024

When InvestingPro’s fair value models identified NCR (NYSE:VYX) Atleos Corporation (NYSE:NATL) as significantly undervalued in March 2024, the financial technology company was trading at just $19.53. Today, with shares at $29.24, that analysis has yielded impressive returns for investors who recognized the opportunity. This success story demonstrates the power of combining fundamental analysis with advanced valuation methodologies to identify mispriced securities. Investors seeking similar opportunities can explore today’s most promising candidates on our Most undervalued list.

NCR Atleos , which provides ATM software, hardware, and payment processing solutions, has undergone a remarkable transformation since the analysis. When InvestingPro’s models flagged the stock, the company had reported annual revenue of $4.19 billion and EBITDA of $663 million, with negative earnings per share. The fair value analysis suggested a 35.74% upside potential, identifying several catalysts for value realization.

The subsequent performance has validated this assessment. NATL shares have delivered a total return of 49.31%, significantly exceeding the initial estimated upside. More importantly, fundamental improvements have supported the price appreciation, with current revenue reaching $4.32 billion and EBITDA expanding to $832 million. The company has also achieved a dramatic turnaround in profitability, posting positive earnings per share of $1.26.

Recent developments have reinforced the investment thesis. The company secured $400 million in financing, expanded its technological capabilities with bitcoin ATM functionality, and received positive analyst coverage, including a $60 price target from DA Davidson. While Q2 2025 results were mixed, the overall trajectory remains positive, with the stock maintaining levels well above the initial analysis price.

InvestingPro’s fair value methodology combines multiple valuation approaches, including discounted cash flow analysis, peer comparisons, and market-based metrics. This comprehensive approach helps identify situations where market prices diverge significantly from intrinsic value, as demonstrated in the NCR Atleos case. The model’s accuracy is particularly noteworthy given the volatile market conditions during the analysis period.

For investors seeking to replicate this success, InvestingPro offers advanced tools for identifying similar opportunities. The platform’s fair value models, combined with real-time financial data and expert analysis, provide a comprehensive framework for making informed investment decisions. With new opportunities emerging regularly, subscribers gain access to the same powerful analytics that identified the NCR Atleos opportunity.

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