Barclays ups price targets for Seagate, Western Digital on improved HDD outlook

Investing.com -- Barclays has raised its price targets for Seagate Technology and Western Digital, pointing to improved demand trends and firmer pricing in the hard disk drive (HDD) market.

The bank boosted Seagate’s target to $200 from $180 while keeping an Equal Weight rating, and lifted Western Digital’s to $105 from $80, maintaining an Overweight stance.

Analysts led by Tom O’Malley said the HDD industry remains a supply-driven market, with customers “taking any product they can get, given well-executed supply discipline by the industry.”

Seagate’s heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR) drives are expected to become a bigger part of its mix, driving exabyte (EB) share gains, while Western Digital’s UltraSMR platform is already accounting for the mid-40% range of total exabytes and should exit the year near 50%.

O’Malley noted that “this should drive nice EB tailwinds” for Western Digital .

Barclays lifted its industry revenue forecasts by 7% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, citing better-than-expected units next year and stronger average selling prices (ASPs) in 2026.

Seagate’s 2025 revenue and EPS estimates moved to $9.93 billion and $9.65, respectively, from $9.77 billion and $9.40, with 2026 revised higher to $11.90 billion and $12.66 from $10.48 billion and $10.40.

Western Digital’s 2025 revenue and EPS estimates increased to $10.47 billion and $6.32, respectively, from $10.29 billion and $6.13, while 2026 forecasts rose to $11.58 billion and $6.83 from $11.20 billion and $6.49.

Industry-wide, Barclays sees HDD revenue reaching $22 billion in 2025, up 22% year-on-year, and $23.4 billion in 2026, a 6% rise.

Unit shipments are expected at about 120 million in 2025, with growth across mobile, desktop, data center, and consumer segments, before declining to roughly 105 million in 2026 as lower-end HDDs continue to shift toward flash storage.

Nearline shipments are forecast at 66.6 million in 2025, up 14% year-on-year, before flattening in 2026.

Seagate shares have rallied 124% year-to-date while Western Digital has climbed 111%, reflecting optimism around the tightening supply-demand backdrop.

O’Malley believes that “technology transitions alone should be enough to grow EB at mid-20% CAGR,” while highlighting Western Digital’s near-term share leadership—gaining roughly 300 basis points year-on-year in the latest quarter to reach 49%, the highest since 2019, compared with Seagate’s 39%, the lowest since 2019.

The analyst models Western Digital’s share at 49% exiting 2026 versus Seagate’s 43%.