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Investing.com -- Bernstein named Block its “new best idea” in a note Wednesday, citing multiple catalysts for 2025, including accelerating Square gross payment volume (GPV), significant EBITDA growth, reduced regulatory risks, and potential inclusion in the S&P 500.
Analysts believe Block’s combination of efficiency gains and product enhancements could unlock strong profitability growth in the coming years.
“We see potential for Square GPV acceleration (by 2-3ppt) into 2025 for three key reasons: 1) lessening drag from same-store sales weakness, 2) optionality from recent product enhancements, and 3) development of a new distribution muscle,” Bernstein wrote.
However, they also note that the second and third factors “are still a show-me story,” with much depending on execution.
Beyond Square GPV, Bernstein argues that investors have placed too much focus on this single metric, as it “directly drives only ~25% of SQ’s gross profits.”
The firm sees a strong potential for Cash App’s gross profit to grow in the mid-teens, supported by increasing direct deposit penetration and expansion in borrowing and commerce initiatives.
On profitability, Bernstein highlights that Block is reaping the benefits of headcount control following the 2024 restructuring.
“We forecast ~30% EBITDA and ~50% Adj. operating income growth in 2025,” they wrote.
Additionally, the firm sees “under-appreciated optionality from bitcoin mining hardware, which can meaningfully drive operating income growth in the medium/long term.”
With an attractive valuation of “~24x 2026 GAAP PE” and a balance sheet where “~16% of market cap is cash,” Bernstein sees a compelling risk-reward profile for Block heading into 2025.