BT raised to ‘Top Pick’ by Morgan Stanley amid faster fibre rollout, FCF growth

Published 30/05/2025, 08:36
Updated 30/05/2025, 10:26
© Reuters

Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) has upgraded BT Group (LON:BT) to a ’Top Pick,’ raising the price target to 240p, implying a 37% upside. 

Shares of the telecom company were up 2.4% at 05:23 ET (09:23 GMT).

The brokerage notes that while BT’s near-term financials look subdued, with revenues down 2% year-over-year, EBITDA flat, and free cash flow declining 6%, the outlook improves by fiscal 2027, with revenue steady, EBITDA up 1%, and free cash flow rising 33%.

The upgrade follows BT’s fiscal 2025 results in May, which improved free cash flow visibility. 

Near-term capital expenditure is about £100 million higher than expected, reflecting an accelerated fibre rollout. 

By March 2026, BT will have connected fibre to over 23 million homes, nearly 80% of U.K. households, providing clear visibility that capex will ease thereafter, supporting a faster free cash flow recovery.

Morgan Stanley highlights market repair as a potential catalyst. Fibre network competition is shifting from aggressive expansion to consolidation. 

Altnets face funding challenges and weak customer uptake, only 10-20% versus Openreach’s 36%, suggesting they may scale back ambitions. 

The upcoming U.K. mobile merger could reduce consumer market competition, benefiting BT and its EE mobile unit, which hold a competitive advantage in network investments.

Portfolio restructuring remains ongoing. After selling businesses in Ireland and Italy, BT plans to optimize its global international B2B business, which has been a long-term drag and source of profit warnings. 

Management is considering partnerships, disposals, or focusing on cash by winding down unprofitable contracts. The 50/50 joint venture in TNT Sports may also be sold, according to unconfirmed press reports.

On ownership, Bharti acquired a 24.5% stake in November 2024, with potential for an increase. Carlos Slim holds 3-4%, and Deutsche Telekom (OTC:DTEGY) maintains a steady 12% stake since 2015.

Valuation looks attractive, with shares trading at an 8x price-to-earnings multiple and 10% free cash flow to equity yield for fiscal 2027. 

At the 240p target, the 2026 P/E is 11x with an 8% FCFE yield, considered reasonable over a 10-year horizon.

Risks include slower-than-expected progress at Global and U.K. macroeconomic volatility, especially rising gilt yields that could increase BT’s pension deficit valuation pressures.

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