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Investing.com - Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) maintained its Neutral rating and $86.00 price target on CF Industries (NYSE:CF) following the company’s investor day in New York City on Wednesday.
The fertilizer producer outlined its view that nitrogen supply and demand dynamics should remain tight as global demand growth outpaces supply growth. CF Industries also highlighted its Blue Point low-carbon ammonia project, which will come online in 2029, noting that demand for this product already exceeds planned capacity.
During the presentation, CF Industries projected mid-cycle EBITDA of $2.5 billion, near 2024-2025 levels, with growth to $3 billion expected by 2030. The company identified share repurchases as its top priority for free cash flow, pointing out that it has reduced its share count by 56% since 2010.
Mizuho remains neutral on fertilizer stocks, expressing concern that limited momentum in corn prices will make it difficult for fertilizer prices to continue rising while remaining affordable to farmers. The firm believes this price constraint will challenge companies in achieving material earnings growth.
The research firm concluded that most positive developments are already reflected in fertilizer stock prices, suggesting limited upside potential for CF Industries shares from current levels.
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