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Investing.com -- Shares of Churchill Downs Incorporated (NASDAQ:CHDN) fell by 2.5% despite the company announcing record wagering numbers for the Kentucky Derby Day program and Derby Week. The decline in stock price appears to be a reaction to the company’s expectation of a lower Adjusted EBITDA for Derby Week compared to the previous year.
The company reported that wagering from all sources on the Kentucky Derby Day program reached a new high of $349.0 million, surpassing the previous year’s $320.5 million. Similarly, all-sources handle for Derby Week also set a new record at $473.9 million, beating the prior year’s $446.6 million. TwinSpires, Churchill Downs’ official betting partner, handled a record-breaking $108.0 million in wagers on Churchill Downs races for the Kentucky Derby Day program, up from last year’s $92.1 million.
Despite these impressive figures, the company anticipates that Adjusted EBITDA for Derby Week will be one of the highest in its history, yet $2 to $4 million lower than the exceptional earnings from last year’s 150th Kentucky Derby. BofA Securities analyst Shaun Kelley highlighted this EBITDA decline, attributing it to "weaker close in bookings and softer-than-expected pricing at the new Starting Gate Pavilion." Nevertheless, Kelley maintained a Buy rating on the stock and a price target of $115.00. He expressed optimism for the event’s future profitability, stating, "We expect the Kentucky Derby to grow EBITDA in 2026, driven by (1) a new NBC television deal, and (2) $25-30M project capex for the Finish Line Suites and the Mansion."
Investors seem to be weighing the record wagering numbers against the anticipated dip in earnings, leading to the stock’s decline in the trading session.
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