Deutsche Bank downgrades Kuehne+Nagel and DHL amid weak global trade signals

Published 19/09/2025, 10:44
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Investing.com -- Deutsche Bank Research downgraded Kuehne+Nagel (SIX:KNIN) and DHL Group (ETR:DHLn), citing a challenging market environment and heightened uncertainty in global trade.

Kuehne+Nagel, a Swiss logistics provider, was cut to “hold” from “buy” rating, with a target price lowered to CHF182 from CHF225. 

Shares of the Schindellegi-based company were down 7.2% at 05:42 ET (09:42 GMT).

Analyst Andy Chu noted that while a full-blown recession in the U.S. or Europe is not certain, macroeconomic indicators, including jobs data and consumer confidence, are showing signs of strain. Spending on goods, in particular, is under pressure.

Chu said the company is likely to face challenges in the second half of the year, with a “material step down in profits” expected for the third quarter both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. 

Deutsche Bank’s dbDataInsights analysis indicated container growth of approximately 3% year-on-year for September, a modest increase. 

The brokerage also highlighted the absence of near-term catalysts, citing ongoing earnings pressure, volatile tariff news, and the risk of a recession, which it said is not fully reflected in consensus forecasts. 

The new 2025 EBIT forecast for Kuehne+Nagel is CHF1.35 billion, below both the Bloomberg consensus of CHF1.50 billion and the company’s recently revised guidance of CHF1.45-1.65 billion.

DHL Group, a German courier and logistics company, was similarly downgraded to Hold, with the target price reduced from €47 to €42. 

Chu pointed to ongoing uncertainty from U.S. tariff implementations and the removal of de minimis rules, which he said negatively affect freight companies. 

While weak U.S. imports have been partially offset by strength in other trade lanes, including China to Europe, and DHL’s own network and cost adjustments have helped earnings hold up, the overall market backdrop remains challenging. 

Deutsche Bank noted that current guidance for the year may be overstretched, particularly considering a potential €200 million impact from further U.S. de minimis rule changes.

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