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Investing.com -- Endesa SA (BME:ELE) was downgraded by Bernstein in a note dated Wednesday, which cut its rating on the Spanish utility to “market perform” from “outperform,” citing fading momentum in the company’s investment drivers and reduced visibility on returns. The brokerage lowered its price target to €26.50 from €27.50.
“Short-term drivers look more uncertain now,” Bernstein analysts wrote, noting that while network investments had supported the stock in recent months, the draft proposal from Spain’s energy regulator “fell short of expectations, implying lower potential returns than those required to incentivise increased capex.”
The regulator’s draft set a financial rate of return at 6.46%, which Bernstein described as a “reality shock” for companies banking on higher returns to fund accelerated network spending.
The analysts said this created “greater uncertainty regarding the company’s ability to ramp up network capex,” which Endesa had targeted at €1.2 billion to €1.5 billion annually.
The downgrade follows a 24% rise in Endesa’s share price this year, outpacing peers. But Bernstein said the main catalyst, higher network returns, “is running out of steam,” and no updates are expected until November when the final regulatory decision is due.
In the meantime, the analysts cut earnings estimates, revising EPS for 2026 down by 4.4% and for 2027 by 6.9%.
The brokerage added that while a €500 million share buyback program may provide “interim support for the stock price,” a more bullish stance would require clarity on regulation or stronger power prices.
“In light of the regulator’s draft, it now appears more likely that Endesa will reduce investments relative to the current plan,” Bernstein said. “The additional €2.0-3.0bn in additional investments may not materialise.”