Ferrari stock tumbles as guidance disappoints

Investing.com -- Ferrari NV (BIT:RACE) shares plunged on Thursday after the luxury automaker presented its 2030 Strategic Plan at its Capital Markets Day, and provided a cautious forecast.

The stock is down more than 16% at 12:15 pm GMT.

The company stated that it expects revenue of at least EUR 7.1 billion this year, surpassing its previous forecast of EUR 7 billion but falling short of the Bloomberg-compiled consensus estimate of EUR 7.09 billion.

Meanwhile, adjusted EBIT is expected to be at least EUR 2.06 billion, above the previous expectation of at least EUR 2.03 billion, but again below the consensus estimate of EUR 2.07 billion. Ferrari expects its full-year adjusted diluted EPS to be at least EUR 8.80. The consensus estimate is EUR 8.90.

Looking further ahead, the company anticipates its 2030 adjusted EBITDA to be at least EUR 3.6 billion.

"We were expecting a conservative 2030 EBIT guide, but the unveiled >€3.6B in 2030 from >€2.72B (from >€2.68B) implies a 6% EBIT CAGR, well below the 10% CAGR implied at the 2022 CMD when it gave its 2022-2026 forecast," said RBC Capital. "The 6% CAGR is likely conservative, but investors are likely to interpret a downshift in EBIT growth from prior history."

RBC concluded: "The 2025 guidance raise was expected at the Q3 results coming soon but we think the 2030 guidance coming in below expectations will push shares lower today."

The Italian automaker also outlined plans to launch an average of four new cars annually between 2026 and 2030, including the introduction of its first fully electric vehicle, the Ferrari elettrica.

By 2030, Ferrari’s product lineup will consist of 40% internal combustion engine vehicles, 40% hybrid models, and 20% electric vehicles, reflecting the company’s commitment to technology neutrality while embracing electrification.

"We expected the powertrain split to be adjusted," RBC analyst Tom Narayan wrote in a client note, explaining that the ’demand for EVs are different globally today than they were back in 2022 when the company unveiled its initial powertrain targets."

"We think investors were expecting this but will be pleased it happened nonetheless," he said.

The strategic plan also revealed Ferrari has grown its active client base to 90,000, representing a 20% increase compared to 2022. To better serve these clients, the company will open new Tailor Made centers in Tokyo and Los Angeles.

Ferrari Executive Chairman John Elkann stated, "With the new Ferrari elettrica, we once again affirm our will to progress by uniting the discipline of technology, the creativity of design and the craft of manufacturing."

The company emphasized its focus on in-house development of electric components at its Maranello facility and continued investment in performance across all powertrain types.

Ferrari also announced ambitious decarbonization targets, planning to reduce its Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions by at least 90% by 2030 compared to 2021 levels.

Scope 3 emissions will be cut by at least 25% in absolute terms by 2030 compared to 2024.