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Investing.com -- Flutter Entertainment’s stock trading 2% higher on Wednesday following a confident outlook for fiscal year 2025.
The gambling company reaffirmed its full-year guidance in line with its previously announced investor day framework, while also highlighting potential upside risks.
Having pre-released its fourth-quarter 2024 results earlier this year, Flutter’s latest earnings report centered on its FY25 outlook. While the International segment fell approximately 4% short of expectations, analysts at BofA Securities believe the implicit upgrade to U.S. 2025 EBITDA guidance is more significant for the stock. As a result, they reiterate a ’buy’ rating and maintain a price target of $310.
Macquarie analysts maintain an ’outperform’ rating with a higher price target of $340, emphasizing Flutter’s diversified global growth. Barclays (LON:BARC) also remains ’overweight’ on Flutter, increasing its price target to $308 (+$7), citing strong underlying U.S. business momentum.
Flutter has projected revenue and EBITDA growth in FY25, with the U.S. market expected to reach $1.4 billion in EBITDA from existing states, approximately 7% ahead of consensus (pre-MO investment), driven by stronger-than-expected 2024 underlying activity, particularly in iGaming.
The first quarter is off to a strong start, with U.S. adjusted EBITDA guidance of approximately $280 million, well above consensus estimates of $225 million.
Barclays analysts view this as a key surprise, attributing it to strong iGaming momentum and re-accelerating online sports betting (OSB) handle.
Despite some moderation in sports handle growth, Flutter remains the market leader, holding a 43% share in sports betting and a 26% share in iGaming in the U.S. Barclays projects OSB market share at 32.4% and iGaming market share at 23.9% for 2025.
Flutter’s fourth-quarter 2024 revenue grew 14%, with EBITDA up 5%. U.S. handle grew 12%, slightly below expectations, but this was offset by stronger iGaming performance, which came in 4% above forecasts. In the UK & Ireland, revenue exceeded expectations by 4%, helped by favorable sports results.
International revenue surpassed estimates by 5%, reflecting 22% like-for-like growth, with particularly strong momentum in Italy, where revenue rose 16%.
Earnings per share surged 67% year-over-year, while free cash flow increased 177% due to lower interest costs, capital expenditures, and improved working capital.
Internationally, Flutter expects EBITDA to remain flat year-over-year at $1.85 billion, due to FX headwinds, tough hold comps, and a more challenging calendar year-over-year against last year’s Euro Cup. Adjusting for these factors, International EBITDA would be up 10%.
The NSX (Brazil) and Snai (Italy) acquisitions remain on track for completion in the second quarter of 2025.
Flutter’s full-year 2025 guidance projects group revenue of $15.48 billion to $16.38 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.94 billion to $3.38 billion.
U.S. revenue and EBITDA are projected at $7.72 billion and $1.4 billion, respectively, with the first quarter expected to represent 24-25% of annual revenue and 20% of adjusted EBITDA.
New state launches, including Missouri in the fourth quarter and Alberta in early 2026, are expected to contribute an additional -$40 million in revenue and -$90 million in adjusted EBITDA.
Given its strong financial position, Flutter plans to repurchase $1 billion in shares in 2025, capitalizing on declining leverage.
Macquarie has adjusted its 2025-2027 EBITDA forecasts to $3.251 billion, $4.342 billion, and $5.189 billion, respectively.
Barclays revised its FY25 estimates downward by 2%, now projecting U.S. EBITDA at $1.3 billion and International EBITDA at $2.2 billion. The firm’s $340 price target is based on a blend of EV/EBITDA, free cash flow, discounted cash flow, and EV/sales.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) maintains an ‘overweight’ rating, reaffirming Flutter as a top pick within the gambling sector.
The brokerage projects revenue of $16.29 billion for FY25, reflecting a 16% year-over-year increase, alongside a 26% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $2.36 billion.
Analysts see minimal downside risk to consensus forecasts, with Flutter trading at 20.7 times its projected 2026 price-to-earnings ratio and 12.1 times enterprise value to EBITDA.