HSBC upgrades NVIDIA to Buy, sees ‘significant potential AI GPU TAM upside’

Published 15/10/2025, 11:28
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Investing.com -- HSBC has upgraded NVIDIA to Buy from Hold in a note on Wednesday, raising its target price to $320 from $200, citing “room for significant FY27e earnings upside” as demand for AI chips continues to broaden beyond traditional cloud providers.

In its latest report, HSBC said it now expects NVIDIA’s FY27 datacenter revenue to reach $351 billion, which is 36% above consensus. 

The analysts wrote, “We upgrade NVIDIA to Buy on the back of increasing FY27e GPU total addressable market (TAM) relative to our previous expectations.” 

HSBC also highlighted that a potential U.S.-China trade deal could “enable NVIDIA to see a demand recovery in the Chinese market.”

The bank raised its FY27 earnings per share estimate for Nvidia to $8.75, compared with the consensus forecast of $6.48, “despite not including any revenue from chip exports to China in FY27e.” 

The bank also noted that “renewed CoWoS wafer allocation momentum” was resuming for the first time since late 2025, with FY27 CoWoS allocation raised to 700,000 wafers from 480,000, implying year-on-year growth of 140%.

“Our bull-case scenario suggests potentially USD390bn in FY27e datacenter revenue, or an implied FY27e EPS of USD9.68,” HSBC wrote. 

They added that “recent NVIDIA AI deals imply potential AI GPU revenue opportunity of USD251-400bn just from Stargate and OpenAI 18.3GW commitments.”

HSBC concluded: “We expect AI GPU TAM to keep increasing beyond hyperscalers, leading to continuous earnings growth.”

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