Jefferies upgrades Chemed as Medicare cap risk eases and buybacks support stock

Published 02/09/2025, 14:04
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Jefferies upgraded Chemed Corp to Buy from Hold, saying recent developments have reduced regulatory risk in its hospice business and improved the earnings outlook, while share repurchases should help drive stock gains.

The bank said it had previously been cautious on Chemed, citing the impact of Medicare reimbursement caps in Florida.

But mitigation measures and better-than-expected 2026 Medicare rates have eased those concerns, putting projected hospice growth and margins toward the higher end of forecasts.

Jefferies now sees 2026 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization at the upper end of Street estimates.

Chemed had warned in June that the Medicare cap could result in an $18 million to $25 million liability. Jefferies said current trends suggest the hit will be below $5 million as the company focuses on short-stay patients, hospitals, and new operations.

It expects VITAS Healthcare, Chemed’s hospice unit, to grow 6% to 8% in 2026 with margins of 17.5% to 18.5%, levels already reflected in consensus estimates.

Jefferies also pointed to aggressive buybacks, with management likely to use most of its $480 million authorization in the second half of 2025, supporting near-term valuation.

Roto-Rooter, Chemed’s plumbing and drain services business, remains a source of uncertainty, but Jefferies noted encouraging July trends and expects a solid August that could support third-quarter results.

It added that a Federal Reserve rate cut could help the unit by shifting contractor demand back to construction and renovation projects, easing competitive pressures.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.