Conservative commentator Charlie Kirk shot and killed at Utah event
Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Oracle to $246 from $175 ahead of the company’s earnings and analyst day this week, citing strong momentum in its artificial intelligence infrastructure business and expectations for higher long-term revenue.
The bank maintained an Equal-weight rating on the shares.
Analysts said Oracle’s fiscal 2029 (FY29) revenue target could be lifted from $104 billion to about $125 billion at the upcoming analyst day on September 12, supported by recent contract wins and surging backlog growth. Morgan Stanley’s revised model embeds a revenue compound annual growth rate of more than 20% through FY29.
In fiscal fourth-quarter 2025, Oracle projected more than 100% growth in remaining performance obligations (RPOs), implying a backlog of roughly $280 billion by fiscal 2026.
Shortly after, the company announced a $30 billion annualized contract, “presumably with OpenAI – which likely underpins the majority of management’s bullish bookings expectations,” analyst Keith Weiss wrote.
While top-line growth prospects have improved, Weiss flagged uncertainty around profitability. Oracle refrained from reiterating its 45%-plus operating margin target for fiscal 2026, with Morgan Stanley now forecasting FY29 margins at about 39%.
The bank’s revised model suggests earnings per share in 2029 of $11.50 to $12.00, compared with the consensus of $12.29.
“Assuming a MSFT-type multiple and an 8.7% WACC, the upside has largely been priced in,” Weiss said.
He also flagged risks tied to customer concentration. Morgan Stanley’s base case assumes that OpenAI could account for roughly 30% of Oracle’s 2029 revenue, making results heavily reliant on the pace and durability of AI infrastructure demand.
The Wall Street firm sees Oracle’s base case supporting the new $246 target, with a bull scenario pointing to $347 if revenue rises toward $135 billion and margins hold above 40%, but a bear case of $147 if growth underwhelms and margins compress.
Oracle is set to release fiscal first-quarter results after Tuesday’s close, with Wall Street forecasting earnings of $1.48 per share on sales of $15.04 billion, up 6% and 13% from a year earlier.
The stock has been one of the strongest performers in the software sector, advancing about 40% since the start of the year and more than 60% over the past 12 months, far outpacing the broader large-cap software group.